Oracle [is] tempting fate by putting itself in a position where not only does the AI boom need to continue and pure play AI companies need to become profitable, but the latter needs to happen...soon.
Fantastic breakdown of the capital trap Oracle's walking into. The mismatch between 15-20 year lease obligations and 3-5 year chip refresh cycles is brutal when customers are burning VC cash with no path to profitablity. I've wached similar plays where infrastructure providers overcommit to unprofitable clients and end up bagholding depreciated assets. Oracle's betting on AI monetization timelines that even OpenAI can't articulate clearly yet.
Exactly. Usually, an "asymmetric bet" means a high probability of high returns and a low probability of failure. Oracle's asymmetric bet looks like the opposite. They're spending a ton of money for the possibility of making relatively paltry returns.
In my opinion, this latest round of AI is yet another attempt by Wall Street and the Silicon Valley squad to swindle naive investors into the latest get-rich-quick-scheme. Evidence is that the AI moniker has been placed on any product connected to the web, which includes even household appliances, ridiculous. I give this latest scam at most 24 months before it is forgotten and the next best thing since sliced bread comes around. In Europe, it is the latest stupid effort to sell hydrogen and fusion as recent discoveries that will produce copious amounts of "clean" energy. In the meantime, smart people are investing in fossil fuels and silver.
AI is BS. I have experienced it 4-5 times in my career, the first at supercomputer maker Cray Research in Minnesota, where I worked from 1984-1991. It was mostly hype back then, as it is today. Online AI does little more than search the web, starting with Wikipedia - big deal. It seems like only yesterday that Bitcoin mine data centers were going to consume all electric power consumption - what happened to that? Nothing replaces the human mind, and certainly not computer data centers. The future is to those who combine hand skills, brain smarts, morality and conviction to serving others. Note that the Amish and Mennonite populations double every 17 years, and most of these hard-working, family-friendly people do not even own a PC or cell phone.
"Nothing replaces the human mind..." I completely agree.
As usual, this sort of thing comes back to the suppression of the free market and the debasement of money. Without these two things, markets would dictate whether AI was worth anything and especially worth pursuing with hard earned savings. Instead, we have freshly printed money (not savings) circulating through the system constantly in ever greater amounts, ultimately reaching the most speculative targets.
Fantastic breakdown of the capital trap Oracle's walking into. The mismatch between 15-20 year lease obligations and 3-5 year chip refresh cycles is brutal when customers are burning VC cash with no path to profitablity. I've wached similar plays where infrastructure providers overcommit to unprofitable clients and end up bagholding depreciated assets. Oracle's betting on AI monetization timelines that even OpenAI can't articulate clearly yet.
Exactly. Usually, an "asymmetric bet" means a high probability of high returns and a low probability of failure. Oracle's asymmetric bet looks like the opposite. They're spending a ton of money for the possibility of making relatively paltry returns.
In my opinion, this latest round of AI is yet another attempt by Wall Street and the Silicon Valley squad to swindle naive investors into the latest get-rich-quick-scheme. Evidence is that the AI moniker has been placed on any product connected to the web, which includes even household appliances, ridiculous. I give this latest scam at most 24 months before it is forgotten and the next best thing since sliced bread comes around. In Europe, it is the latest stupid effort to sell hydrogen and fusion as recent discoveries that will produce copious amounts of "clean" energy. In the meantime, smart people are investing in fossil fuels and silver.
AI is BS. I have experienced it 4-5 times in my career, the first at supercomputer maker Cray Research in Minnesota, where I worked from 1984-1991. It was mostly hype back then, as it is today. Online AI does little more than search the web, starting with Wikipedia - big deal. It seems like only yesterday that Bitcoin mine data centers were going to consume all electric power consumption - what happened to that? Nothing replaces the human mind, and certainly not computer data centers. The future is to those who combine hand skills, brain smarts, morality and conviction to serving others. Note that the Amish and Mennonite populations double every 17 years, and most of these hard-working, family-friendly people do not even own a PC or cell phone.
"Nothing replaces the human mind..." I completely agree.
As usual, this sort of thing comes back to the suppression of the free market and the debasement of money. Without these two things, markets would dictate whether AI was worth anything and especially worth pursuing with hard earned savings. Instead, we have freshly printed money (not savings) circulating through the system constantly in ever greater amounts, ultimately reaching the most speculative targets.